Studying COVID-19 in light of critical approaches to risk and uncertainty: research pathways, conceptual tools, and some magic from Mary Douglas

This editorial is a response to the recent COVID-19 pandemic and underlines the valuable role that critical social science approaches to risk and uncertainty can play in helping us understand how risk is being understood and mitigated. Drawing on Heyman's approach to understanding risk as a configuration of probabilistic knowledge, time-framing, categories and values, I explore COVID-19 risk in relation to each of these features while also emphasising how different features stabilise one another. I suggest lines of inquiry into each of these features and their interrelatedness. I then move to present some important insights from the work of Mary Douglas which are especially germane to studying the risk of COVID-19 and, again, I raise possibilities for future research. Emphasising the centrality of ritual to Douglas's theory, I develop these considerations to encourage an exploration of magic and magical thinking, alongside rational approaches to COVID-19 risk.

A Bayesian approach to estimating COVID-19 incidence and infection fatality rates.

Naive estimates of incidence and infection fatality rates (IFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 suffer from a variety of biases, many of which relate to preferential testing. This has motivated epidemiologists from around the globe to conduct serosurveys that measure the immunity of individuals by testing for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the blood. These quantitative measures (titer values) are then used as a proxy for previous or current infection. However, statistical methods that use this data to its full potential have yet to be developed. Previous researchers have discretized these continuous values, discarding potentially useful information. In this article, we demonstrate how multivariate mixture models can be used in combination with post-stratification to estimate cumulative incidence and IFR in an approximate Bayesian framework without discretization. In doing so, we account for uncertainty from both the estimated number of infections and incomplete deaths data to provide estimates of IFR. This method is demonstrated using data from the Action to Beat Coronavirus erosurvey in Canada.

Identifying the changing age distribution of opioid-related mortality with high-frequency data.

BACKGROUND: Opioid-related mortality continues to rise across North America, and mortality rates have been further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study sought to provide an updated picture of trends of opioid-related mortality for Ontario, Canada between January 2003 and December 2020, in relation to age and sex. METHODS: Using mortality data from the Office of the Chief Coroner for Ontario, we applied Bayesian Poisson regression to model age/sex mortality per 100,000 person-years, including random walks to flexibly capture age and time effects. Models were also used to explore how trends might continue into 2022, considering both pre- and post-COVID-19 courses. RESULTS: From 2003 to 2020, there were 11,633 opioid-related deaths in Ontario. A shift in the age distribution of mortality was observed, with the greatest mortality rates now among younger individuals. In 2003, mortality rates reached maximums at 5.5 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% credible interval: 4.0-7.6) for males around age 44 and 2.2 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 1.5-3.2) for females around age 51. As of 2020, rates have reached maximums at 67.2 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 55.3-81.5) for males around age 35 and 16.8 deaths per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 12.8-22.0) for females around age 37. Our models estimate that opioid-related mortality among the younger population will continue to grow, and that current conditions could lead to male mortality rates that are more than quadruple those of pre-pandemic estimations. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis may inform a refocusing of public health strategy for reducing rising rates of opioid-related mortality, including effectively reaching both older and younger males, as well as young females, with health and social supports such as treatment and harm reduction measures.

COVID mortality in India: National survey data and health facility deaths.

India's national COVID death totals remain undetermined. Using an independent nationally representative survey of 0.14 million (M) adults, we compared COVID mortality during the 2020 and 2021 viral waves to expected all-cause mortality. COVID constituted 29% (95%CI 28-31%) of deaths from June 2020-July 2021, corresponding to 3.2M (3.1-3.4) deaths, of which 2.7M (2.6-2.9) occurred in April-July 2021 (when COVID doubled all-cause mortality). A sub-survey of 57,000 adults showed similar temporal increases in mortality with COVID and non-COVID deaths peaking similarly. Two government data sources found that, when compared to pre-pandemic periods, all-cause mortality was 27% (23-32%) higher in 0.2M health facilities and 26% (21-31%) higher in civil registration deaths in ten states; both increases occurred mostly in 2021. The analyses find that India's cumulative COVID deaths by September 2021 were 6-7 times higher than reported officially.

Assessing effective mask use by the public in two countries: an observational study.

OBJECTIVES: During the COVID-19 pandemic wearing a mask in public has been recommended in some settings and mandated in others. How often this advice is followed, how well, and whether it inadvertently leads to more disease transmission opportunities due to a combination of improper use and physical distancing lapses is unknown. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational study performed in June-August 2020. SETTING: Eleven outdoor and indoor public settings (some with mandated mask use, some without) each in Toronto, Ontario, and in Portland, Oregon. PARTICIPANTS: All passers-by in the study settings. OUTCOME MEASURES: Mask use, incorrect mask use, and number of breaches (ie, coming within 2 m of someone else where both parties were not properly masked). RESULTS: We observed 36 808 persons, the majority of whom were estimated to be aged 31-65 years (49%). Two-thirds (66.7%) were wearing a mask and 13.6% of mask-wearers wore them incorrectly. Mandatory mask-use settings were overwhelmingly associated with mask use (adjusted OR 79.2; 95% CI 47.4 to 135.1). Younger age, male sex, Torontonians, and public transit or airport settings (vs in a store) were associated with lower adjusted odds of wearing a mask. Mandatory mask-use settings were associated with lower adjusted odds of mask error (OR 0.30; 95% CI 0.14 to 0.73), along with female sex and Portland subjects. Subjects aged 81+ years (vs 31-65 years) and those on public transit and at the airport (vs stores) had higher odds of mask errors. Mask-wearers had a large reduction in adjusted mean number of breaches (rate ratio (RR) 0.19; 95% CI 0.17 to 0.20). The 81+ age group had the largest association with breaches (RR 7.77; 95% CI 5.32 to 11.34). CONCLUSIONS: Mandatory mask use was associated with a large increase in mask-wearing. Despite 14% of them wearing their masks incorrectly, mask users had a large reduction in the mean number of breaches (disease transmission opportunities). The elderly and transit users may warrant public health interventions aimed at improving mask use.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 incidence: A multi-country study.

The study of the impacts of air pollution on COVID-19 has gained increasing attention. However, most of the existing studies are based on a single country, with a high degree of variation in the results reported in different papers. We attempt to inform the debate about the long-term effects of air pollution on COVID-19 by conducting a multi-country analysis using a spatial ecological design, including Canada, Italy, England and the United States. The model allows the residual spatial autocorrelation after accounting for covariates. It is concluded that the effects of PM2.5 and NO2 are inconsistent across countries. Specifically, NO2 was not found to be an important factor affecting COVID-19 infection, while a large effect for PM2.5 in the US is not found in the other three countries. The Population Attributable Fraction for COVID-19 incidence ranges from 3.4% in Canada to 45.9% in Italy, although with considerable uncertainty in these estimates.

Capturing spatial dependence of COVID-19 case counts with cellphone mobility data.

Spatial dependence is usually introduced into spatial models using some measure of physical proximity. When analysing COVID-19 case counts, this makes sense as regions that are close together are more likely to have more people moving between them, spreading the disease. However, using the actual number of trips between each region may explain COVID-19 case counts better than physical proximity. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of using telecommunications-derived mobility data to induce spatial dependence in spatial models applied to two Spanish communities' COVID-19 case counts. We do this by extending Besag York Mollié (BYM) models to include both a physical adjacency effect, alongside a mobility effect. The mobility effect is given a Gaussian Markov random field prior, with the number of trips between regions as edge weights. We leverage modern parametrizations of BYM models to conclude that the number of people moving between regions better explains variation in COVID-19 case counts than physical proximity data. We suggest that this data should be used in conjunction with physical proximity data when developing spatial models for COVID-19 case counts.

COVID-19 vaccination intention during early vaccine rollout in Canada: a nationwide online survey.

BACKGROUND: Understanding vaccination intention during early vaccination rollout in Canada can help the government's efforts in vaccination education and outreach. METHOD: Panel members age 18 and over from the nationally representative Angus Reid Forum were invited to complete an online survey about their experience with COVID-19, including their intention to get vaccinated. Respondents were asked "When a vaccine against the coronavirus becomes available to you, will you get vaccinated or not?" Having no intention to vaccinate was defined as choosing "No - I will not get a coronavirus vaccination" as a response. Odds ratios and predicted probabilities are reported for no vaccine intentionality in demographic groups. FINDINGS: 14,621 panel members completed the survey. Having no intention to vaccinate against COVID-19 is relatively low overall (9%) with substantial variation among demographic groups. Being a resident of Alberta (predicted probability = 15%; OR 0.58 [95%CI 0.14-2.24]), aged 40-59 (predicted probability = 12%; OR 0.87 [0.78-0.97]), identifying as a visible minority (predicted probability = 15%; OR 0.56 [0.37-0.84]), having some college level education or lower (predicted probability = 14%) and living in households of at least five members (predicted probability = 13%; OR 0.82 [0.76-0.88]) are related to lower vaccination intention. INTERPRETATION: The study identifies population groups with greater and lesser intention to vaccinate in Canada. As the Canadian COVID-19 vaccination effort continues, policymakers may use this information to focus outreach, education, and other efforts on the latter groups, which also have had higher risks for contracting and dying from COVID-19. FUNDING: Pfizer Global Medical, Unity Health Foundation, Canadian COVID-19 Immunity Task Force.

Online Public Interest in Cancer During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

PURPOSE: Health care priorities of individuals may change during a pandemic, which may, in turn, affect health services utilization. We examined Canadians' online relative search interest in five common solid tumors (breast, colon, lung, prostate, and thyroid) during the COVID-19 pandemic to that observed in the same months in the prior 5 years. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional retrospective study using Google Trends aggregate anonymous online search data from Canada. We compared the respective relative search volumes for breast, colon, lung, prostate, and thyroid cancers for the months March-November 2020 with the mean for the same months in 2015-2019. Welch's two-sample t tests were performed and the raw P values were then adjusted using Benjamini-Hochberg procedure to correct for multiple comparisons. The level of statistical significance was defined by choosing false discovery rate at .05 for the primary analysis. RESULTS: We observed temporary statistically significant reductions in Canadians' relative search volumes for various cancers, largely early in the pandemic, in the spring of 2020. Specifically, significant reductions (after adjustment for multiple comparisons) were observed for breast cancer in April, May, and October 2020; colon cancer in March and April of 2020; lung cancer in April and September 2020; and prostate cancer in April and May 2020. Thyroid cancer relative search volumes were not significantly different from those observed prior to the pandemic. CONCLUSION: Although Canadians' online interest in various cancers temporarily waned early in the COVID-19 pandemic, recent relative search volumes for various cancers are largely not significantly different from prior to the pandemic.

Standards Are Not Curriculum

The Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) present a modern framework for science education. Its three-dimensional construct calls for teachers to favor depth over breadth, while engaging students in "doing" science, not just learning science facts. To avoid the familiar problem of curricula that are "a mile wide and an inch deep," the Standards call for framing teaching around disciplinary core ("big") ideas, science and engineering practices, and crosscutting concepts. The NGSS are elegant in their conception but will require major shifts from the way science has been taught in many classrooms.

Following Dutch healthcare professionals’ experiences during COVID-19: Tensions in everyday practices and policies amid shifting uncertainties

While the limits of rational-calculative approaches for healthcare decision-making, alongside institutional forms of ritual, routines and hope employed to deal with these limits, were already described in the 1950s, healthcare professionals? syncretism of rational and non-rational approaches in their everyday work remains a neglected topic in Northern Europe. Using COVID-19 as an urgent problem for healthcare policy and practice, and a natural ?breaching experiment? which disrupts everyday work in ways which help professionals to critically reflect, this article explores how a small, purposive sample of young healthcare professionals in the Netherlands dealt with the uncertainties and risks posed by continued healthcare work amid the pandemic. Analysing qualitative data, collected via longitudinal online interviews among healthcare professionals, the analysis pays particular attention to: concerns, anxieties and risks faced by professionals;understandings and ways of working with(out) protocols;different logics for handling uncertainty in different situations;how different logics (rational, non-rational and ?in between? rationalities) are combined in different aspects of their work. A key feature of the analysis is the tensions which emerged within these combined strategies and how these relate to broader tensions in terms of the limits of rationality, economic scarcity, work-life experiences, and evidence versus emotions.

Addressing a rapidly changing service landscape during the COVID-19 pandemic: Creation of the Oregon substance use disorder resource collaborative.

Following the rising crisis of COVID-19 and the Oregon governor's stay-at-home orders, members of the Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU) inpatient addiction consult service recognized that local addiction treatment and recovery organizations were operating at limited capacity. As a result, discharge planning, patient access to local community-based treatment, and safety-net programming were affected. Given structural and intersectional risk vulnerabilities of people with substance use disorders (SUDs), the OHSU members felt that COVID-19 would disproportionately impact chronically marginalized members of our community. These inequities inspired the formation of the Oregon substance use disorder resources collaborative (ORSUD) led by four medical students. ORSUD's mission is to support the efforts of local safety-net organizations that and front-line providers who serve chronically marginalized community members in the midst of the global pandemic. We operationalized our mission through: 1) collecting and disseminating operational and capacity changes in local addiction and harm reduction services to the broader treatment community, and 2) identifying and addressing immediate resource needs for local safety-net programs. Our program uses a real-time public-facing document to collate local programmatic updates and general community resources. COVID-19 disproportionately burdens people with SUDs; thus, ORSUD exists to support programs serving people with SUDs and will continue to evolve to meet their needs and the needs of those who serve them.

Population-weighted exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 incidence in Germany.

Many countries have enforced social distancing to stop the spread of COVID-19. Within countries, although the measures taken by governments are similar, the incidence rate varies among areas (e.g., counties, cities). One potential explanation is that people in some areas are more vulnerable to the coronavirus disease because of their worsened health conditions caused by long-term exposure to poor air quality. In this study, we investigate whether long-term exposure to air pollution increases the risk of COVID-19 infection in Germany. The results show that nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) is significantly associated with COVID-19 incidence, with a 1 µ g  m - 3 increase in long-term exposure to NO 2 increasing the COVID-19 incidence rate by 5.58% (95% credible interval [CI]: 3.35%, 7.86%). This result is consistent across various models. The analyses can be reproduced and updated routinely using public data sources and shared R code.

The COVID-19 Pandemic as a Traumatic Stressor: Mental Health Responses of Older Adults With Chronic PTSD.

OBJECTIVE: Individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) who experience additional traumas or stressful life events may undergo symptomatic worsening, but no data exist on whether exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic in a high infection area worsens mental health among older adults with chronic PTSD. METHODS: Seventy-six older adults (N = 46 with PTSD and N = 30 trauma-exposed comparison subjects [TE]) for whom prepandemic data were available were interviewed between April 1 and May 8, 2020 to quantify depressive (Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression [HRSD]) and PTSD symptom (Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist [PCL-5]) levels. Group differences in baseline characteristics as well as pre-post pandemic symptom levels were examined, and participant characteristics were assessed as moderators of symptom change. RESULTS: Compared to TEs, individuals with PTSD more often reported living alone and experiencing a physical illness (χ2 = 5.1, df = 1, p = 0.02). PCL-5 scores among individuals with PTSD decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic by 7.1 points (t(69) = -3.5, p = 0.0008), whereas the TE group did not change significantly. Overall no significant differences in HRSD were found between groups, but a race or ethnicity variable was found to moderate HRSD symptom change. Non-black or Hispanic individuals with PTSD experienced significantly increased HRSD scores during the pandemic compared to black or Hispanic PTSD participants. CONCLUSION: The findings are indicative of complexity in the responses of older individuals with PTSD to further stressful life events as well as possibly unique aspects to the COVID-19 pandemic as a stressor. Sources of resilience may exist based on experience with prior traumas as well as increasing age promoting more adaptive coping styles.

Predictors of self-reported symptoms and testing for COVID-19 in Canada using a nationally representative survey.

Random population-based surveys to estimate prevalence of SARS-CoV2 infection causing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are useful to understand distributions and predictors of the infection. In April 2020, the first-ever nationally representative survey in Canada polled 4,240 adults age 18 years and older about self-reported COVID experience in March, early in the epidemic. We examined the levels and predictors of COVID symptoms, defined as fever plus difficulty breathing/shortness of breath, dry cough so severe that it disrupts sleep, and/or loss of sense of smell; and testing for SARS-CoV-2 by respondents and/or household members. About 8% of Canadians reported that they and/or one or more household members experienced COVID symptoms. Symptoms were more common in younger than in older adults, and among visible minorities. Overall, only 3% of respondents and/or household members reported testing for SARS-CoV-2. Being tested was associated with having COVID symptoms, Indigenous identity, and living in Quebec. Periodic nationally representative surveys of symptoms, as well as SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, are required in many countries to understand the pandemic and prepare for the future.

The professional and personal impact of the coronavirus pandemic on US neurointerventional practices: a nationwide survey.

BACKGROUND: Little is currently known about the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on neurointerventional (NI) procedural volumes or its toll on physician wellness. METHODS: A 37-question online survey was designed and distributed to physician members of three NI physician organizations. RESULTS: A total of 151 individual survey responses were obtained. Reduced mechanical thrombectomy procedures compared with pre-pandemic were observed with 32% reporting a greater than 50% reduction in thrombectomy volumes. In concert with most (76%) reporting at least a 25% reduction in non-mechanical thrombectomy urgent NI procedures and a nearly unanimous (96%) cessation of non-urgent elective cases, 68% of physicians reported dramatic reductions (>50%) in overall NI procedural volume compared with pre-pandemic. Increased door-to-puncture times were reported by 79%. COVID-19-positive infections occurred in 1% of physician respondents: an additional 8% quarantined for suspected infection. Sixty-six percent of respondents reported increased career stress, 56% increased personal life/family stress, and 35% increased career burnout. Stress was significantly increased in physicians with COVID-positive family members (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study designed to understand the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on NI physician practices, case volumes, compensation, personal/family stresses, and work-related burnout. Future studies examining these factors following the resumption of elective cases and relaxing of social distancing measures will be necessary to better understand these phenomena.

Experiences of American Older Adults with Pre-existing Depression During the Beginnings of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multicity, Mixed-Methods Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of older adults with pre-existing major depressive disorder (MDD). PARTICIPANTS: Participants were 73 community-living older adults with pre-existing MDD (mean age 69 [SD 6]) in Los Angeles, New York, Pittsburgh, and St Louis. DESIGN AND MEASUREMENTS: During the first 2 months of the pandemic, the authors interviewed participants with a semistructured qualitative interview evaluating access to care, mental health, quality of life, and coping. The authors also assessed depression, anxiety, and suicidality with validated scales and compared scores before and during the pandemic. RESULTS: Five themes from the interviews highlight the experience of older adults with MDD: 1) They are more concerned about the risk of contracting the virus than the risks of isolation. 2) They exhibit resilience to the stress and isolation of physical distancing. 3) Most are not isolated socially, with virtual contact with friends and family. 4) Their quality of life is lower, and they worry their mental health will suffer with continued physical distancing. 5) They are outraged by an inadequate governmental response to the pandemic. Depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation symptom scores did not differ from scores before the pandemic. CONCLUSION: Most older adults with pre-existing MDD show resilience in the first 2 months of the COVID-19 pandemic but have concerns about the future. Policies and interventions to provide access to medical services and opportunities for social interaction are needed to help to maintain mental health and quality of life as the pandemic continues.